Amid the recent release of US jobs market data, Bitcoin reacted with a quick fall of more than 3% to crash below $54,000 levels. Despite the data release marks an economic slowdown and fastens the rate cut talks in the upcoming FOMC meeting, BTC marks a 24H low $52,546.
With the history of Bitcoin predicting downtrend chances in September, even the market analysts fail to see any big moves before the US elections. Under such conditions, will the falling wedge in Bitcoin price revisit $50,000? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin in a Wedge Eyes Breakout Run
In the daily chart, the BTC price trend shows a massive bearish engulfing candle with the 3.92% drop yesterday. The downfall tests the bottom support trendline of the bullish flag channel.
Source: Tradingview
With a lower price rejection from the support trendline, Bitcoin is currently trading at $54,196. Further, with the biggest crypto avoiding a closure below the $53,500 base level, the chances of a double bottom reversal increases.
The long-tail formation along with the bullish divergence in the daily RSI line increases the possibility of a comeback. However, the ongoing bear cycle results in a negative crossover between the MACD and signal lines. Hence, the momentum indicators remain polarized as the volatility increases.
Based on the price action levels, the support levels below the $54,000 base are at $53,500 and $52,500. As the daily RSI line divergence teases a breakout run, the buyers can face challenges at $58,169 and $61,026.
Bitcoin Historical Data Opposes Recovery Run
Based on the monthly returns data sheet from Coinglass, September has a historic record of being a bearish month. On the basis of average returns, September holds the -4.78% record and a media of -5.58%.
Source: Ali Charts
Hence, the returns over the years forecast a bearish trend in Bitcoin in September against the optimistic price action analysis. However, the bullish record of October and November projects a high chance of a new all-time high in Bitcoin.
Based on the Coinglass data, the BTC price can end September at an estimated $56,022, and by October’s end, it can reach $68,803. The most bullish projection comes in November, with an average of 46.81% return over the years. As per this record, the future price of Bitcoin can achieve a new all-time high in November and hit the $101,026 mark.
Matthew Hyland, a crypto analyst, expects no significant price movements in Bitcoin before October/November. In a recent tweet, he reiterated the possibility of a bull run in late 2024 as it remains an election year and based on 2023 price action.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s UTXOs Signal a Rally: Is a New All-Time High Possible?
Will the Uptrend Continue Till 2025?
Considering that the Bitcoin price will achieve the six-digit mark in 2024, the uptrend chances are high for the next year. Further, the potential rate cuts in September are likely to have a three to four-month effect on risky assets like Bitcoin.
In addition, the US Presidential elections are around the corner. As both candidates improve their pro-crypto stances, the bull run in Bitcoin and altcoins seems imminent.
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